If I picked the winners...

Best Motion Picture of the Year

Slumdog Millionaire (2008) - Christian Colson
This is an obvious lock.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Wrestler, The (2008) - Mickey Rourke
A hasbeen actor playing a hasbeen wrestler, not so much of a stretch perhaps. But as an actor you have to draw from personal experiences to bring a character to life. And this has got to be one of the most significant comebacks in Hollywood history.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Reader, The (2008) - Kate Winslet
There's a part of me that feels like there's going to be a suprise win in this category (ala Marion Cotillard last year). If they give it to Kate it will be a for her body of work not just for The Reader and Revolutionary road, but for her previous 5 nominations. If she loses, I feel a young first time nominee will be the winner, and Kate will go down in history as the most nominated actress yet to win an Oscar.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Tropic Thunder (2008) - Robert Downey Jr.
Heath has garnered enough fanfare and awards. He's carved a notch in Hollywood history. Giving him this award maybe perceived as a waste of an award for one of the other 4 strong contenders. Robert had two strong showings this year and has made a bit of a comeback (Iron Man) in his own right.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008) - Penélope Cruz
I finally watched this film earlier tonight. One of her finest performances thus far. I don't see her as having any real competition.

Best Achievement in Directing

Milk (2008/I) - Gus Van Sant
Danny Boyle did a great job directing a plot driven underdog film. Gus did an amazing job directing a character driven labor of love.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

Milk (2008/I) - Dustin Lance Black
This is as close to Best Picture as Milk will get.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Slumdog Millionaire (2008) - Simon Beaufoy
This is as much of a lock as its Best Picture win.